Gold just rewrote the record book. Spot prices surged to $3,545 per ounce on September 1, 2025, extending an already blistering rally and forcing Wall Street to chase the move. Year-to-date gains are hovering near 30%, and the metal has roughly doubled since early 2023. That strength has flipped the mood from cautious to openly bullish across the sell side.
Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper now expects an average of $3,500 in the third quarter and $3,700 in the fourth. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $3,700 as well, pointing to heavy central bank buying and persistent inflows into exchange-traded funds. UBS strategist Joni Teves says investors are increasing allocations as the Federal Reserve edges toward easier policy. With the dollar softer—down about 2.2% over the past month and marginally lower to start the week—the wind is clearly at gold’s back.
Momentum aside, the backdrop looks made for a durable uptrend: rate cuts are coming into view, the U.S. currency has slipped, and geopolitical risks never really left. Central banks have remained steady buyers, and ETF demand has swung from tepid to solid. Traders describe a market where dips get bought quickly, and that behavior has pulled technical resistance levels into view faster than expected.
Forecasts race to catch up with price
Forecasts tend to lag a fast tape, and this tape has been fast. Cooper’s outlook for a $3,500 Q3 average puts the street closer to where spot is already trading, while the $3,700 fourth-quarter call matches Goldman’s year-end view. Both frames lean on the same pillars: a Fed pivot, renewed ETF accumulation, and steady official-sector demand. They’re also acknowledging what price action already telegraphed—positioning remains light compared with past peaks, leaving room for fresh money to come in.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has gently opened the door to easing after roughly nine months of holding the line, a shift that matters more for real yields than for the nominal policy rate itself. Gold trades off real rates: when the inflation-adjusted return on safe assets falls, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold shrinks. Even a hint of a turn has been enough to keep buyers engaged.
The softer dollar helps too. A weaker greenback lowers the local-currency cost of gold for non-U.S. buyers and tends to invite demand from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. That matters heading into a seasonally stronger stretch for consumption, with festival and wedding calendars in key markets typically supporting physical buying.
Under the surface, liquidity has improved as futures volumes rise and ETFs pick up new assets, but the market is still prone to sharp intraday swings. Tightness in physical supply—driven by conservative mine capex in recent years and refining bottlenecks in some hubs—has added a risk premium on spikes.
What’s behind the surge—and what could trip it up
Several forces are pushing in the same direction. The combination is rare, and that’s why price has moved so fast.
- Policy pivot risk: Markets are pricing a clearer path to Fed rate cuts, which pressures real yields and supports gold.
- Dollar drift: A 2.2% slide in the U.S. dollar over the past month improved affordability for overseas buyers.
- Central bank demand: Global central banks have been consistent net buyers for years, adding diversification and hedging currency risk.
- ETF and institutional flows: After a slow 2024 start, allocations have turned positive, with macro funds adding on weakness.
- Geopolitical hedging: Ongoing tensions have kept safe-haven demand alive, especially during risk-off days for equities.
- Seasonality: The late summer-to-winter stretch often sees stronger physical buying tied to holidays and weddings in major consuming countries.
Technicians point to resistance around $3,650, with support flagged near $3,450 and $3,400. Those levels matter because this rally has been relentless; when momentum indicators run hot, even modest pullbacks can accelerate as leveraged positions unwind. Traders say a decisive break above resistance would invite fresh trend-following flows; failure there could spark a test of support zones.
What could go wrong? Start with real yields. If incoming U.S. data force the Fed to delay cuts or guide to a higher-for-longer stance, real rates can jump and the dollar can rebound. That two-punch combination tends to dent gold in the short run. Sharp equity rallies can also siphon some capital away, while profit-taking from fast-money accounts may amplify downside moves after vertical climbs.
Physical demand is another swing factor. At very high prices, some retail buyers step back, substitution picks up in jewelry, and recycling flows increase as households sell scrap. Import policies and taxes in big consuming nations can shift quickly if authorities worry about trade balances or hot-money flows. Those changes can cool local demand at the margin.
On the flip side, sustained central bank buying provides a floor. Reserve managers are still diversifying away from concentrated currency holdings, and gold’s lack of counterparty risk plays well in a world of sanctions and capital controls. The official sector tends to buy on weakness, which can cushion drawdowns and shorten bear phases.
For investors deciding how to play it, the tool kit is broad. Physical bullion offers direct exposure but comes with storage and insurance costs. Large ETFs provide convenience and liquidity but charge management fees and can track slightly under spot over time. Futures give leverage and flexibility but demand discipline on margin and roll costs. Mining equities add operational risk and can swing more than the metal, especially for companies with high-cost assets or heavy debt.
Analysts pushing a “buy-the-dip” mindset stress risk management. In practice, that means scaling entries, placing stops below key support, and separating long-term core holdings from shorter-term trading positions. Volatility is likely to stay elevated around policy meetings and major data releases. Watch the September Fed decision, the updated projections, U.S. CPI and PCE prints, payrolls, and China’s credit and growth gauges. ETF flow trends and central bank purchase disclosures are the other tell.
Beyond the market, the rally is reshaping the industry. Producers are enjoying fatter margins as realized prices outpace cost inflation in energy, labor, and consumables, though those input costs remain a watch item. Balance sheets strengthened during the last upcycle, which opens the door to higher dividends, buybacks, and another round of M&A as majors look for growth in a world of harder-to-find deposits. Developers may finally unlock financing for projects that were uneconomic at $1,800–$2,000 gold.
Refiners and mints report heavy throughput as investment bars and coins see renewed interest, but retail behavior is mixed: some buyers chase momentum; others switch to lighter weights to keep tickets manageable. In jewelry, sticker shock is real. Retailers in price-sensitive markets are adjusting designs, reducing purity or gram weight, or encouraging trade-ins to keep sales moving.
Macro context still argues for a higher equilibrium price than in the last cycle. Public debt loads are heavier, productivity growth is uneven, and geopolitical shocks are more frequent. In that world, investors tend to value assets that aren’t someone else’s liability. If real rates drift lower as policy eases and inflation cools only gradually, the setup remains constructive.
Short term, keep an eye on the $3,650 ceiling and how price behaves on tests of $3,450–$3,400. Breakouts on strong volume would validate the banks’ targets. Failures there would invite consolidation—healthy in a market that’s rallied this far, this fast. Either way, the tone has shifted: the street is no longer arguing whether the gold price forecast should move up, but by how much and how quickly it will be reached.
